Tashkent offices: the average vacancy rate hides the risk in new Class A buildings

Supply: a wave of new Class A space

Coldwell Banker Commercial Uzbekistan estimates that about 150,000 sq m of new Class A offices came to the Tashkent market between December 2025 and the second quarter of 2026. More than 100,000 sq m will follow from early 2027. The company puts the base-case vacancy for new buildings of this class at 40–50%.

For scale: the SHRE (Scot Holland) review for the first quarter of 2026 puts the entire Tashkent office stock at roughly 750,000 sq m. Consultants measure the market on different bases, so an exact ratio cannot be given. The order of magnitude is clear, though: in six months the market gained space comparable to a fifth of the whole stock, all of it Class A.

The structure of the stock is changing just as fast. According to market estimates for September 2026, Class B is the largest segment with about 55% of space. Class C holds about 21%, and Class A together with Prime about 24%, of which Prime accounts for about 13%. Prime means single-owner buildings with top-grade engineering and parking; the first of them appeared in 2023. In 2020 Class B held 43% of the stock, Class C 57%, and quality buildings barely existed.

Demand: what official statistics show

Uzbekistan publishes no direct statistics on office leasing. There are indicators that drive demand.

The number of companies with foreign capital is growing fastest in trade (from 6,134 to 7,860 in a year), industry (from 3,579 to 4,245) and construction (from 1,322 to 1,820). Together with the IT sector, these are the main candidates to lease modern offices. Market estimates for September 2026 confirm it: trade and distribution companies account for about 25% of demand, IT companies for 16%, banks and financial organisations for 15%.

Growth in the number of companies does not equal growth in leased space. Many trading and industrial firms need a warehouse or a site first, and their office is small. How many square metres of modern offices the market actually absorbs in a year is not published.

Rents and yields

According to SHRE for the first quarter of 2026:

• rents at the top of the market (Class A and A+) are about $30–36 per sq m per month, up 5–8% in a year;
• Class B rents are about $25–28 per sq m per month;
• Prime office yields are 8.75–10.5%, other offices 10–12%;
• market vacancy is about 14–16% and trending down.

SHRE does not disclose its method or say whether rents include VAT and service charges. These are asking rents, not rents in signed leases.

Market estimates for September 2026 give a breakdown by class, here including VAT and service charges:

For an owner, something else matters more. The gap between Class A and Class B is only $6 per sq m, while a finished fit-out raises the rent by 15–35% compared with shell space. Fit-out often weighs as much in an occupier’s decision as the class of the building.

Sale prices of non-residential premises

Since September 2026 the state has published average asking prices by district for the first time. According to the National Centre for Mass Valuation of Real Estate under the Cadastre Agency, as of 1 September 2026:

These are listing prices, not transaction prices, and the agency does not disclose the sample: it may include shops, warehouses and ground-floor units in residential blocks. Dividing Class A rents by these prices to obtain a “yield” is therefore wrong. What the data does show is a gap of almost three times between central and outlying districts, wider than in housing, where it is about 2.3 times.

How to read these figures

• The consultants disagree, and that is explicable. SHRE describes the market as a whole and sees vacancy falling. Coldwell Banker Commercial speaks about new Class A buildings and sees oversupply. Both pictures can be true at once: the old stock is full, the new buildings are not.
• The bases differ. Some count the whole stock, others only modern business centres or only Class A. Figures from different reviews cannot be compared directly.
• What open data lacks. Transaction volumes, annual absorption, rents in signed leases and actual terms: rent-free periods, landlord contributions to fit-out, indexation. These are the figures that determine a building’s return, and they have to be collected deal by deal.